Quantitative Methods Individual work 2 wk4 Assignment

Quantitative Methods Individual work 2 wk4 - Assignment Example Glenn believes that a referendum could be placed on the voting ballot in time for the November election. Passage of the referendum would change the zoning of the property and permit construction of the condominiums. The sealed-bid procedure requires the bid to be submitted with a certified check for 10% of the amount bid. If the bid is rejected, the deposit is refunded. If the bid is accepted, the Deposit is the down payment for the property. However, if the bid is accepted and the bidder does not follow through with the purchase and meet the remainder of the financial obligation within six months, the deposit will be forfeited. In this case, the county will offer the property to the next highest bidder. In the case study above, a decision tree was used to analyze the possible scenarios that took place. Decision trees are used to clearly define the process in which a problem is solved and the possible outcomes which will result into the solution being formulated (Mian & Mian, 2002, P. 198).In the decision, tree below, D1 represents the point where the solution is made. This point is referred to as a decision node. (Mian & Mian, 2002, P. 199).Chance circles are points within the decision nodes which reveal the possible outcomes which are out of the control of the decision maker.C1 represents these chance circles (Mian & Mian, 2002, P. 199). C3-after the bid has been accepted, and they do not follow through with the purchase and also fail to meet the financial obligations in 6 months, the deposit will be forfeited and the property will automatically be taken to the next highest bidder. The concept of expected value assists to determine the worth of an investment after analyzing possible outcomes and probability of each scenario as it occurs. Once all these scenario and probabilities have been brought together along with each scenario, the expected return is found after each outcome is multiplied by each probability. Before